Practice Makes Improvement in Subjective Probability Estimations
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Does the phrase "Subjective Probability Estimation" make you feel uncomfortable? If you're a data-driven professional, you're likely wary of each of those terms on their own, let alone combining them into one thing.
But we sometimes need to do it. And we can practice to get better at it.
In this episode, we emphasize the importance of subjective probability estimations in decision-making, especially in situations where concrete data may be unavailable or impractical.
We talk about:
• Exploring the discomfort of subjective probability estimations
• Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations for complex systems analysis
• Addressing bias and improving estimation accuracy
Inspired by Douglas W. Hubbard's "The Failure of Risk Management," we uncover strategies to sharpen our estimation skills. Consistent practice leads to improvements. Whether it's by imagining you're betting money, breaking down complex estimations, or engaging in true-false trivia, this episode emphasizes regular practice in refining these skills.
You're invited to participate in a collaborative endeavor tailored for engineers.
Let's create a shared database of estimation questions—to foster a community of learning and improvement.
- Choose a true/false question (with answer).
- Or ask for a value (e.g. distance in air travel from LAX to PHL) (with answer).
Share it with Dianna to add to a database for sharing. Either leave a comment, below, or respond in email to Dianna's newsletter.
Want to know how to do this with FMEA?
Sign up for "FMEA in Practice: From Plan to Risk-Based Decision Making". Available on Udemy.com.
Other podcast episodes you may like:
Simplifying Probabilities for Better Decision Making
Harnessing Team Insights for Risk Analysis using Probabilities